Save TV! Call the doctors! No, call the lawyers!

Michael Hedges November 10, 2008

It’s not clear whether the linear broadcast model is dying faster than the ad model. Rigor mortis hasn’t set in but everybody hears the rattles. The patient – television – is convinced the end can be put off by less regulation, more regulation or otherwise divine intervention. That would be new media.

With ad revenues becoming scarce and viewers looking elsewhere television broadcasters are rolling on the floor like death metal rockers. The European Commission (EC) is pushing mobile TV as an answer. Broadcasters are eying TV on-demand.

A group of commercial broadcasters met in Brussels last week (November 6) to hear EC Info Society and Media Commissioner Viviane Reding’s pitch for mobile TV. Despite the hue and cry, projections and forecasts, mobile TV has yet to move consumers; not the Olympics, football nor the 111% mobile phone penetration in Europe. “The industry was not ready,” complained Commissioner Reding. Or, maybe, consumers aren’t ready to stump up for the world’s highest access fees.

A few days earlier EC Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes slapped public broadcasters with a draft Broadcasting Communication that, if passed, would force dreaded transparency on ‘the public service’. PSBs wailed as their hopes for mixing new money from new media with the usual State aid face the watchful eye of Commissioner Kroes.

Commissioner Reding, speaking to the annual conference of the Association of Commercial Television in Europe (ACT), offered one, small concession to commercial broadcasters.  There will be, she said, “no new ban…imposed on ads.” But, as if to say ‘you’d have to be crazy to go there,’  she added, “If you want to go ahead in this field, take initiatives in self-regulation.”

That’s small relief as media buyers spend less as economies contract and devote conspicuously more to non-linear media. Major ad houses – WPP, Aegis and Publicis – have warned that 2009 will be a very tough year. “There is no doubt that the disintegration in the financial markets has had and will continue to have, a significant negative effect on consumer and corporate confidence,” said WPP (October 30) in its Q3 report to investors. UK TV marketing group Thinkbox said (November 7) ad rates charged by UK commercial broadcasters have fallen to 1992 levels.

Public broadcasters and their supporters met the same day in Montreux, Switzerland. The European Audiovisual Observatory (EAO), funded by the Council of Europe and supported by the EC, organized a fun filled day of seminars on non-linear television, TV on demand. Public broadcasters see on-demand services as a high potential money maker.

“In 2016, approximately 25% of audiovisual content watched by viewers will be non-linear programs,” said SF Schweizer Fernsehen (Swiss German public TV) Media Center head Walter Bachmann. All media usage forecasts presented in the 21st century have turned out wrong. Herr Bachmann just might find this forecast far too conservative.

The BBC’s iPlayer brilliantly demonstrates the reach – and potential – of on-demand television. Launched in January 2008 the iPlayer has seen over 250 million streams and downloads. Hello! People really like this idea of ‘catch-up’ TV. The iPlayer has a mobile phone component (iPhone, naturally) but the vast majority of traffic is web-based.

Of paramount interest to public broadcasters, protestations of ‘service’ to the contrary, is the legal framework through which they can proceed with a variety of new media offerings. A detailed presentation by EAO head lawyer Susanne Nikoltchev showed the complexity of rights and obligations. “PSBs engaging in TV-like non-linear services also have to watch three different areas of law; content regulation, copyright and competition.”  Under the EC’s Audiovisual Services Directive (AVSD) content rules for linear and non-linear TV services are (almost) equal. Several national governments, certainly not all, have mandated PSBs offering on-demand services.

If anybody doubts the cozy relationship between regulators and public broadcasters, put it to rest. The current rotating EAO chairmanship is held by Frédéric Riehl, Deputy Director of the Swiss regulator OFCOM.

The vaunted digital dividend has converged with market economics. Over-supply is risky – like everybody discovered when bankers created ‘value’ out of thin air. And with consumers finding, figuratively and literally, the credit cards maxed out pay services could be the first cut. PSBs are (still) at an advantage with guaranteed tax funding and sympathetic regulators.  Those offering a balance to State broadcasting – often referred to as ‘media pluralism’ – will need to get creative. Again.