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Advertising health - meaning spending - is still closely watched by the media sphere. Ads remain the thrust for the media engine though not like in days of yore. Ad spending forecasts, then, are interesting, like GDP, inflation, CEO compensation and air quality. Everything is watched, trend charts created, liquid lunches consumed.
Two big media buyers - GroupM and Magna - delivered this week their latest ad spending forecast updates. Contrary to the fears of some, there will be ad spending in 2023, just not as much as previously expected. After all, hands are wringing over the possibility of recession. For some in ad land, that’s just another opportunity. GroupM is part of ad/marketing holding company WPP. Magna is part of Interpublic Group (IPG).
As advertising becomes more like crypto mining, both are hedging their bets on 2023. GroupM is seeing “cautious optimism,” said business intelligence director Kate Scott-Dawkins, quoted by AdExchanger (December 5). “That’s what we’re hearing from advertisers on their earnings calls so that’s where our heads are at until we see something that forces us to change our minds.” It’s 2023 ad revenue forecast is lower - 5.9% - than end of year 2022 growth - 6.5%. (See more about ad spending here)
Magna is expecting much the same; “a slight slowdown in advertising revenue growth in an uncertain economic environment,” said director of global market intelligence Luke Stillman. The second half of 2023 will be better. Both forecasters expect downward trajectories for ad spending through traditional publishing and television. Revenues from ad-funded streaming TV (Netflix and Disney+) are not likely to make up the difference. Both see decaying growth rates in the US and China, together 55% of global ad spending.
Brand managers, generally, and celebrities, certainly, know there’s no such thing as bad publicity. Notable exceptions, however, have risen briefly. But, most of the communications experts like to accentuate the positive.
Always mindful of communications skills, ad land sat up straight Tuesday (December 6) when General Electric (GE) bought out the entire New York Times print edition. That would be 22 full-page full-color pages and five partial pages. “In its 171-year history, this is the first time when a single advertiser bought out the entire ad space of the newspaper,” noted Mint (December 7). There was more: the digital edition and podcasts were included, plus a circular crossword puzzle and foldable paper airplane, all created by the NYT’s in-house studio.
“GE’s interactive ad campaign is different,” offered Marketing Dive (December 7). “It’s not taking place on a cutting-edge piece of Web3 technology, but on newsprint. It’s something consumers can actively touch and feel, providing a different experience.” In other words, ad land loved it.
Then the next day (December 7) Google anointed Wordle its most search-term of the year. For the uninitiated, Wordle is a hugely clever and justly popular word game developed by Welsh software engineer Josh Wardle. The NYT acquired Wordle early this year and the game was integrated into the NYT games and puzzles website. Wordle is available in dozens of languages, including Norwegian. “This year it is the word game Wordle that is at the top of the search list,” said Google Norway communications lead Sondre Ronander, quoted by ournalistenJ (December 7). “Since the game is only available in a browser, it seems that it has been natural for Norwegians to use Google to find out.”
In the US publishing arena none of this drowned out news this week of the 24-hour NYT NewsGuild strike. Over 1,100 union employees, including advertising and editorial staff, left their cubicles early this morning (December 8) to further vocalize distress over the lack of a union contract, which expired in March 2021. It is the "first strike of its kind at the newspaper in more than 40 years,” noted AP (December 8).
“Break your Wordle streak,” exhorted NewsGuild on social media, noted The Wrap (December 7). “Stand with us on the digital picket line.” A Wordle grid was included: “Time Union Staff Walks.”
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